{"id":7722,"date":"2023-02-02T10:51:46","date_gmt":"2023-02-02T15:51:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.law.georgetown.edu\/iiel\/research\/iiel-blog\/new-directions-for-brazils-foreign-policy-ambitions-2\/"},"modified":"2025-05-12T11:08:25","modified_gmt":"2025-05-12T15:08:25","slug":"new-directions-for-brazils-foreign-policy-ambitions-2","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/www.law.georgetown.edu\/iiel\/research\/publication-opportunities\/iiel-blog\/new-directions-for-brazils-foreign-policy-ambitions-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Policy Brief: New Directions for Brazil’s Foreign Policy Ambitions"},"content":{"rendered":"

Published November 28, 2022 by Mariana Negreiros Mariano<\/a>, IIEL Program Associate and Jacob Shively<\/a>, Associate Professor in the Department of Government at the University of West Florida.<\/em><\/p>\n

In a remarkable turn, Brazil\u2019s former two-term president, Luis In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva\u2014known universally as Lula\u2014won Brazil\u2019s 2022 presidential election. Will he also return his prior ambitions to refashion Brazil as an internationalist rising power? The election itself was razor-thin, with the final votes for each candidate separated by less than two percentage points. Whereas Lula is a leftist who espoused relatively moderate policies in office, his opponent, Jair Bolsonaro, is a classic nationalist who expressly modeled much of his approach after former US president Donald Trump. (At one point, he even <\/span>live-streamed himself<\/span><\/a> taking notes on a Trump speech.) In Trump fashion, Bolsonaro approached foreign policy as a set of bilateral relationships in which perceived cultural threats and personal political affinities might carry nearly as much weight as trade concerns. On balance, though, Bolsonaro remained inward-focused and saw key players in, for example, the military as important for preserving domestic order. By contrast, Lula emphasized working with and through international institutions as well as building Brazil\u2019s diplomatic and even military capabilities.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Our research suggests that both presidents\u2019 grand strategy visions were constrained by existing commitments and larger realities. Looking forward, these findings suggest that Lula may once again work to reorient Brazil away from Bolsonaro\u2019s nationalism; however, Lula\u2019s ambitions are likely to be moderated based on lessons learned in prior administrations and the national inertia that channels all grand strategy ambitions.<\/span><\/p>\n

I. <\/strong>Background<\/b><\/p>\n

Our study<\/span><\/a> compared three cases of Brazilian foreign policy: two administrations under President Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva (2003-04 and 2007-08) and the Jair Messias Bolsonaro administration (2019-2022). We focused on each term\u2019s first two years, when precedents are set and major changes more likely, and we applied an emerging analytical framework dubbed \u201cgrand strategy analysis\u201d (GSA). This approach allows observers to evaluate governments\u2019 foreign policies based upon the individuals making decisions, setting agendas, and promulgating rhetoric. This approach not only offers insight into the flow of Brazilian grand strategy but also offers a simple means to study grand strategies consistently across the global north and south. This framework is \u201cagent-centered,\u201d meaning that grand strategy can be observed among individual decision makers and other leaders.[1]<\/a><\/span> By treating grand strategy as an empirical phenomenon that we can observe as a pattern of thought as policy, we break that phenomenon into three dimensions that we could observe in any administration or time period. These dimensions are\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n