Young Black Voters and the 2024 Presidential Race: Shifts in Political Allegiances and the Call for Change

December 5, 2024 by Dymir Arthur

As the 2024 Presidential Race approached its final chapter, the American media continued to note Vice President Kamala Harris’s substantial lead among Black voters, especially in battleground states.1 Nevertheless, the story of Black voters’ support of the Democratic nominee was far more complicated than one of unquestionable loyalty.2 Support of the Vice President had been weaker among young Black voters compared to her predecessors.3 This reality sat within the broader context of young Black voters’ weaker allegiance to the Democratic party.4

Historically, Democratic presidential candidates have garnered overwhelming support from Black voters with President Barack Obama earning a record-breaking 97% of their votes.5 By comparison, pre-election data suggested that roughly 80% of Black voters intended to vote for Vice President Harris while another 15% intended to vote for Donald Trump.6 For the now President-Elect, that data point represented a six-point increase compared to his failed 2020 bid for re-election.7

These shifts are in part a result of young Black voters feeling the political system has been unresponsive to their interests.8 Compared to older Black voters, young Black voters between the ages of eighteen and twenty-nine, are more likely to support the creation of a “third party to compete with Democrats and Republicans.”9 This coincides with the demographic being less likely to see the Democratic party as having exclusive ownership of the image as the party of change.10

What young Black voters are seeking are solutions to real-world problems and less talk about racial politics alone, discourse that some young Black voters view as a “luxury” to engage with.11 The issues Black voters cared about prior to the election also differed significantly across generational lines. Young Black voters were less likely to rank healthcare, racial equity, violent crime and gun policy among “very important” issues compared to older Black voters.12 Furthermore, unlike older Black voters, young Black voters are now less likely to form their political identity in ways that are influenced by an association with the struggle for civil rights.13

As young Black voters gain greater political power, lawmakers and policy advocates will need to employ newer approaches to gain their engagement and commitment during and well beyond bids for political office. These approaches must be responsive to the more intersectional view this demographic takes in evaluating political topics including the economy and international affairs.14 Finally, the approaches ought to be distinct from what this generation may see as a wholly unsatisfactory if not dangerous incrementalist approach in addressing their concerns and interests.15

1 Stephanie Perry, Harris maintains strong lead among Black swing-state voters in a new poll, NBC NEWS, (October 17, 2024), https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/harris-maintains-strong-lead-black-swing-state-voters-new-poll-rcna175420.
2 Id.
3 Id.
4 Donovan A. Watts, Black Millennials, Slipping Alliances and the Democratic Party, 9 J. RACE, ETHNICITY & POL. 211, 212, 221 (2024).
5 Democrats struggle to limit the loss of Black voters in Georgia, THE ECONOMIST (Oct. 17, 2024), https://www.economist.com/interactive/united-states/2024/10/17/democrats-struggle-to-limit-the-loss-of-black-voters-in-georgia.
6 Maya King et al., Black Voters Drift From Democrats, Imperiling Harris’s Bid, Poll Shows, N.Y. TIMES (Oct. 12, 2024), https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/12/us/politics/poll-black-voters-harris-trump.html.
7 Id.
8 Bria Suggs, Young Black voters are becoming more conservative than their parents. Here’s why, NPR (Aug. 14, 2024), https://www.npr.org/2024/08/14/g-s1-16261/young-black-voters-generation-democrats-conservative-trump-harris-gen-z-millennials.
9 Id.
10 Id.
11 THE ECONOMIST, supra note 5.
12 Kiana Cox, On most important issues, Black voters are more confident in Harris than Trump, PEW RESEARCH CENTER (Sept. 30, 2024), https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/09/30/on-most-issues-black-voters-are-more-confident-in-harris-than-trump/.
13 Suggs, supra note 8.
14 Charles Blow, Biden’s Appeal to Black Voters Needs to be Overhauled, N.Y. TIMES (Jan. 10, 2024), https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/10/opinion/biden-gaza-mother-emanuel.html.
15 Id.