The ongoing Los Angeles fires have incinerated more than 12,000 structures, razed fifty-six square miles of land (nearly the same size as the District of Columbia), and killed sixteen people.^[1] Experts already expect this to be the costliest natural disaster in United States history, even as the fires continue to burn.^[2]

But another record-setting disaster is nothing new. Just a few months ago, Hurricane Helene became North Carolina’s costliest disaster ever, costing 80 billion dollars and 200 lives.^[3] The uptick in bank-breaking natural disasters isn’t new either; it’s been steadily occurring since 1980.^[4] And even that uptick is happening at an increasing rate—the United States has been hit by 23 major disasters per year in the 2020s, up from 13 per year in the 2010s, and up from 7 per year in the 2000s.^[5] Not only are these disasters consistently increasing in frequency, they’re also consistently increasing in cost. In the 2020s, after adjusting for inflation, these major disasters collectively cost about $150 billion each year.[6] That’s up from $100 billion each in the 2010s and $62 billion annually in the 2000s.^[7]

As devastating and costly as this trend is, it could hardly be called unpredictable; scientists warned us that climate change would lead to more dangerous natural disasters like these for thirty years.^[8] The costs of disasters often fall hard on homeowners insurance providers, whose contracts oblige them to compensate homeowners for property lost to natural disasters.^[9] And the ongoing increase in disasters is taking its toll on those insurance providers, who are consistently becoming less profitable, and who lost money in eighteen states last year.^[10]

The weight of these costs is transferred to everyday Americans. To stay profitable, insurers (and their reinsurers) are increasingly becoming forced to cut insurance offerings altogether, subjecting homeowners to bankruptcy in the event of a disaster.^[11] For homeowners who are fortunate enough to survive those cuts, rates will continue to skyrocket; homeowners insurance prices rose 21% in 2023 alone.^[12] And these rising rates are too high to be explained by nationwide inflation alone.^[13] Increased rates hit the poorest homeowners the hardest, but every American is left with fewer dollars.

It might be easy to discount natural disasters as something that only affects the wallets of those in high-risk regions, like coastlines, deserts, or densely populated areas. And, sure enough, homeowners insurance is already a major cost for residents of high-risk states like Florida, Louisiana, and Kansas.^[14] But as the risk of disaster increases in “safer” regions, homeowners insurance operators start to lose money. Just last year, homeowners insurers lost money in states like Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, Ohio, and Utah.^[15] As climate change worsens, it becomes a major cost for residents of every state, not just the usual suspects.

The everyday costs of natural disasters are not limited to the homes that are destroyed or the goods that are ruined; projects intended to protect the public from natural disasters cost taxpayer dollars. For example, Los Angeles currently faces criticism for failing to adequately fund its fire department even after raising its budget by $53 million.^[16] The state of Texas and the city of Houston, for example, are both helping fund a $57 billion storm surge protection project.^[17]

The incoming Trump administration plans to increase fossil-fuel production,^[18] reduce all carbon emission regulations, repeal the Inflation Reduction Act,^[19] and withdraw the United States from the Paris Climate Accord (again).^[20] The evidence is clear that any single one of these actions will greatly increase global greenhouse gas emissions and worsen climate change.[21] And because those emissions increase climate disasters, every single one of these actions will be responsible for real economic harm to everyday Americans.

^[1] Jae Hong et al., Los Angeles County medical examiner’s office confirms wildfire death toll rises to 16, AP News (Jan. 11, 2025, 10:49 PM), https://apnews.com/article/southern-california-wildfires-la-022c6588ac472f227b522ffd6552a642; District of Columbia, US Census Bureau, https://data.census.gov/profile/District_of_Columbia?g=040XX00US11 (last visited Jan. 12, 2025).

^[2] Alex Veiga, The LA county wildfires could be the costliest in US history, early estimates say, AP News (Jan. 11, 2025, 1:30 PM), https://apnews.com/article/california-wildfires-natural-disasters-losses-insurance-recovery-d2f24e44d75503118643151eaee947fb.

^[3] United States Summary, National Centers for Environmental Information (Jan. 10, 2025), https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/state-summary/US.

^[4] Id.

^[5] Id.

[6] Id.

^[7] Id.

^[8] IPCC Second Assessment: Climate Change 1995, IPCC, 34-35 (Dec. 1995), https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/climate-changes-1995/ipcc-2nd-assessment/2nd-assessment-en.pdf.

^[9] Climate Change, Disaster Risk, and Homeowner’s Insurance, Congressional Budget Office (Aug. 2024), https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2024-08/59918-Climate-Change-Insurance.pdf

^[10] Christopher Flavelle & Mira Rojanasakul, As Insurers Around the U.S. Bleed Cash From Climate Shocks, Homeowners Lose, N.Y. Times (May 13, 2024), https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/05/13/climate/insurance-homes-climate-change-weather.html.

^[11] Congressional Budget Office, supra note 8.

^[12] Genna Contino, Homeowners insurance premiums rose 21% last year. Climate change is partly to blame, experts say, CNBC (July 29, 2024, 9:00 AM), https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/29/home-insurance-premiums-rose-21percent-in-2023-partly-due-to-climate-change.html.

^[13] Emma Waters, Rising Insurance Costs and the Impact on Housing Affordability, Bipartisan Policy Center (Jun. 25, 2024), https://bipartisanpolicy.org/blog/rising-insurance-costs-and-the-impact-on-housing-affordability/; Li Cohen et al., Climate change is making home insurance costs more expensive. These maps show prices and weather risks in your state, CBS News (Sept. 17, 2024, 12:24 PM), https://www.cbsnews.com/news/maps-home-insurance-costs-state-extreme-weather-risks/.

^[14] Mary Van Keuren, Home insurance rates by state for January 2025, Bankrate (Jan. 9, 2025), https://www.bankrate.com/insurance/homeowners-insurance/states/#home-insurance-rates-by-state

^[15] Flavelle & Rojanasakul, supra note 9.

^[16] Was the LAFD budget cut? The budget increased, but debate rages over cuts to some positions, Los Angeles Daily News (Jan. 11, 2025, 3:49 PM), https://www.dailynews.com/2025/01/09/factcheck-was-the-lafd-budget-cut-no-it-actually-increased-heres-how/ (There is controversy about whether that money was actually available to the fire department, but regardless, the money the LAFD has is primarily generated by taxes.).

^[17] Adam Zuvanich, Ike Dike project secures initial federal funding, albeit fraction of needed amount, Houston Public Media (May 22, 2025, 5:00 PM), https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/news/energy-environment/2024/05/22/488366/ike-dike-project-secures-initial-federal-funding-albeit-fraction-of-needed-amount/.

^[18] Michael Copley, Trump’s victory promises to shake up U.S. energy and climate policy, analysts and activists say, NPR (Nov. 6, 2024, 2:57 PM), https://www.npr.org/2024/11/06/nx-s1-5181891/trump-win-climate-change-fossil-fuels-clean-energy.

^[19] John Yang et al., What to expect from the new Trumpy administration on climate and environmental policy, PBS News (Nov. 9, 2024, 5:35 PM), https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/what-to-expect-from-the-new-trump-administration-on-climate-and-environmental-policy.

^[20] Ben Lefebvre & Zack Colman, Trump would withdraw US from Paris climate treaty again, campaign says, Politico (Jun. 28, 2024, 8:48 PM), https://www.politico.com/news/2024/06/28/trump-paris-climate-treaty-withdrawal-again-00165903.

[21] Analysis: Trump election win could add 4bn tonnes to US emissions by 2030, CarbonBrief (June 3, 2024), https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-trump-election-win-could-add-4bn-tonnes-to-us-emissions-by-2030/.